Hey, I have an awesome idea. Let's take a stance that disagrees (against the near insurmountable and still growing body of evidence) with nearly every informed mind in science. That would make us sound really smart and on the inside. Even though all I have to back me up is some non peer reviewed internet sites or, at best, papers published and swiftly dismissed by experts in their respective field. The best way to sound like you are a science genius is to completely disregard the entire concept of science and to think that you know more than an entire field of experts who have dedicated their lives to exploring the precise topic you have declared yourself a new found expert in.
As ridiculous as this line of reasoning sounds, unfortunately, I meet people who employ this kind of reasoning nearly every day. They are a dime a dozen on the internet. Now, as a disclaimer, there are times when an entire field of experts are wrong. There are times when a renegade idea turns out to more accurately reflect reality than the accepted theories of the time. However, this case is relatively pretty rare, and is more often than not proposed by an educated expert in that specific field. A rather helpful aspect of science is that it is self correcting. Additionally, in order for this self correcting process to work, we need people to look at ideas with fresh eyes and question assumptions that other scientists make and take for granted.
Now, I am not really here to debate the issues addressed in the paragraph above. I just wanted to make sure I had that base covered before I get assaulted by commentors addressing those points. What I am here to talk about is hedging your bets. I'm not saying that there are any sacred cow theories in science that cannot be questioned. What I am saying is that there are good ideas in science, bad ideas in science, and ideas that we just simply don't know enough about yet to come to a consensus as a community. Now, being a man who likes to be occasionally right, which idea do you think I would take a stance on?
I like to make an analogy when thinking about this specific topic. If I were a gambling man who found himself at a horse racing track I would have many options. I could bet on a horse that is likely to win (in which case I would likely win) or I could bet on another horse that is less likely to win but offers a bigger payoff (I would be less likely to win). I could also make a side bet with a neighbor that a raccoon will dig itself up out of the ground, run the race faster than any of the horses, and be declared the winner of the race (I would have virtually no chance of winning, but let's say it is not out of the realm of possibility in this hypothetical situation). I liken the idea of choosing to not believe in evolution, moon landing, and global warming to those who bet on the raccoon. Admittedly, if the raccoon were to win the race I would be astonished at your foresight to make this bet with me. I would also be reminded by my common sense that there was really no way you could have known this outcome was going to come to fruition and just got extremely lucky in this specific example. However, the chances of this outcome happening are so slim that there are essentially zero chances I have to pay you off. In my mind, this is essentially the same case with those who choose not to believe theories that have withstood so much scrutiny that it is very unlikely that they could turn out to be wrong.
Why do people choose to believe wild theories and ideas that run counter to these well established ideas, theories, and facts? I have some ideas, but I think this format will be more fun:
People who disbelieve evolution, moon landings, and global warming
What you think you sound like:
Hey, I'm not one of those sheeple like you, you poor sucker. I'm not going to let the scientific community pull the wool over my eyes. I have read a blog post on a website that totally disproves hundreds of years of work and false belief in one paragraph. I'm such a genius that I can totally see through the lies of the establishment and one day you will all look back on me and think 'wow, that guy was so ahead of his time'. I'm probably going to spread the truth as soon as it is my turn in the conversation (related to this topic or not) because you poor sheeple deserve to know the truth about this and also the truth about my outstanding intelligence in the process.
What you really sound like:
Hey, I'm not one of those intelligent people who bothers to read up on things that interest me or keeps a skeptical mind towards things that so blatantly require it. I'm not going to let the scientific community help me understand the world I live in. In fact, I prefer my information to come from people who are the black sheep of their field, experts in other fields that think their expertise somehow magically transfers, or isn't an expert in anything at all, from what I can tell. I am easily convinced of just about anything that I read on the internet or hear through one of my conspiracy-loving stoner friends. I'm probably going to make you want to gouge your eyes out every time I open my mouth on this topic. In fact, even if this conversation has nothing to do with the topic that I have this wild theory about, I am going to steer it that way right away so you can get a chance to see how uncritical and annoying I am as soon as possible.
So, the long and short of it is that there are ideas, theories, and hypotheses in science that are not resolved yet. Evolution is not one of them. Neither is the fact that we landed on the moon. Do you want to take a stand on something in science that you have a feeling towards one way or the other? Awesome! That rocks! There are so many things unresolved issues like this that no matter what your interest, you could certainly find somewhere to hedge your bets that is not akin to a raccoon winning a horse race.
In fact, there are some pretty heady ones like this (like quantum theories of gravity, for example) that would make you sound really smart if you were to bring up in conversation. So go for it! If you were to bring up a quantum theory of gravity that you are totally married to at a cocktail party, I would think you are a pretty smart, savy, and engaged person that I find interesting and want to know more about. If you are intent on citing debunked theories of how we did not land on the moon, I am going to be looking for any excuse to politely excuse myself and stay as far away from you as possible. Not because we can't debate this, but because the truth is out there and so accessible that if you were interested in the truth you would have already found it. Some people might not know the difference between some old, tired, debunked alternative theory to evolution and some legitimate debate in science, but I do. And there are more people like me everyday thanks to the free exchange of information and the continuation of science education. Your time of not being dismissed as a lame, uneducated crackpot are rapidly coming to an end.
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